Best Sluggers of All Time

by Alfredo Nasiff Fors

The barrage of Home runs this MLB season resulted in a stratospheric number of broken records. Each year has its own peculiarities, though not as remarkable as this 2019 when even the MLB Commissioner’s Office was prompted to admit that some changes were made to the ball. If we look at the HR/AB mean per season, we would see the differences from one year to another that, independently of the many causes, must be taken into consideration by statisticians when drawing comparisons among sluggers from different decades.

Source: Lahman database in R (for all graphs)

The trend indicates that nowadays, it is easier to hit Home runs than at the beginning of MLB history. We can speculate that if Babe Ruth would have played in modern times, the total of his Home runs would have been higher, but we certainly will never know that. Nevertheless, comparisons can be made among players from different times, weighing in their performances against the rest of the players of each Season played, meaning dividing the individual performance against the Season mean of the parameter we are studying.

The purpose of this paper is to make the comparison of the greatest Home run sluggers of all times against the mean of each season played by them.

We begin by presenting the case of Babe Ruth as an example. The following graph shows HR/AB by year with three lines drawn, one represents Babe Ruth’s index, another one represents the mean of the Season and the last one the Rate, which is [Babe Ruth (HR/AB)]/ [Season (HR/AB)]. In 1920 Babe Ruth HR/AB index was 0.118; the Season mean was 0.007; therefore, he had a frequency of HR/AB 15.8 times above average (the Rate).

Adding up the Rate index accumulated by Babe Ruth along his entire career will make a total of 157.2 times above Seasons mean:

How does this compare with the other players listed among the top HR sluggers, the following table shows it in descending order by number of HR:

	Name	Years	AB	HR	(HR/AB) / Season(HR/AB)
1	Barry Bonds	1986-2007	9847	762	61.2
2	Hank Aaron	1954-1976	12364	755	59.3
3	Babe Ruth	1914-1935	8398	714	157.2
4	Alex Rodriguez	1994-2016	10566	696	43
5	Willie Mays	1951-1973	10881	660	51.7
6	Albert Pujols	2001-2018	10196	633	36.6
7	Ken Griffey	1989-2010	9801	630	46.7
8	Jim Thome	1991-2012	8422	612	51.5
9	Sammy Sosa	1989-2007	8813	609	39.4
10	Frank Robinson	1956-1976	10006	586	53.9
11	Mark McGwire	1986-2001	6187	583	57.4
12	Harmon Killebrew	1954-1975	8147	573	54.5
13	Rafael Palmeiro	1986-2005	10472	569	36.8
14	Reggie Jackson	1967-1987	9864	563	51.3
15	Manny Ramirez	1993-2011	8244	555	41.2
16	Mike Schmidt	1972-1989	8352	548	50.2
17	David Ortiz	1997-2016	8640	541	37.4
18	Mickey Mantle	1951-1968	8102	536	47.8
19	Jimmie Foxx	1925-1945	8134	534	71.5
21	Frank Thomas	1990-2008	8199	521	43.1
22	Ted Williams	1939-1960	7706	521	67.4
20	Willie McCovey	1959-1980	8197	521	56.9
24	Eddie Mathews	1952-1968	8537	512	43.4
23	Ernie Banks	1953-1971	9421	512	40.7
25	Mel Ott	1926-1947	9456	511	70.4
26	Gary Sheffield	1988-2009	9217	509	42.8
27	Eddie Murray	1977-1997	11336	504	39.4
29	Fred McGriff	1986-2004	8757	493	41
28	Lou Gehrig	1923-1939	8001	493	63.7
30	Adrian Beltre	1998-2018	11068	477	29.1
31	Stan Musial	1941-1963	10972	475	43.2
32	Willie Stargell	1962-1982	7927	475	50.5
33	Carlos Delgado	1993-2009	7283	473	31.9
34	Chipper Jones	1993-2012	8984	468	30
36	Dave Winfield	1973-1995	11003	465	39.5
35	Miguel Cabrera	2003-2018	8456	465	28
38	Adam Dunn	2001-2014	6883	462	34.7
37	Jose Canseco	1985-2001	7057	462	44.5
39	Carl Yastrzemski	1961-1983	11988	452	38
40	Jeff Bagwell	1991-2005	7797	449	28.1
41	Vladimir Guerrero	1996-2011	8155	449	27.4
42	Dave Kingman	1971-1986	6677	442	58.6

up to 2018

At first glance, one thought jumps out from the table: Babe Ruth “(HR/AB) / Season (HR/AB)” more than double the next player in the list.

If we look carefully, will see that in recent years it is tougher for players to excel above the mean, note that the only two active players on the list are doing very badly in the Index, which can be explained by the rise in the mean as seen in the first chart, or in simple words, it is harder to be the leader when everybody else hit a lot of Homeruns. This trend has multifactorial causes, among them it will be explored the hypothesis that these days players hit more Home runs thanks to the rise in competitiveness due to the fact that the selection process is made from a larger number of players, Teams, Leagues, training camps, and international contracts, and the advancements made in the technology applied to enhance performance, which plays a major role in nutrition, fitness, statistics, etc.

Could factors such as competitiveness and enhanced performance be measured? The proposition is to use the weight and height of the players as an expression of how those factors have improved their physical traits and therefore quantify how has this affected the mean of HR per Season.

The “Strength” of players will be then, the addition of both their height (in inches) and weight (in lbs.), reasoning that the taller and corpulent the player the farther will go his connections. Plotting the mean of each season, the graph looks like this:

It is effectively seen that in recent times, the players are stronger, therefore making it harder for power hitters to excel above the mean. In 1920 the Strength mean was 243.2 while Babe’s Strength was 289, taking over 45 points of advantage. In 2011, the year Mike Trout debuted with a Strength of 309, the mean topped the all-time list with 285, a meager 24 points below.

Recalculating the “Times_HRperAB_over_SeasonMean” Rate dividing it by the “Times_Strength_over_SeasonMean” resulting in “Times HRRate_vs_StrengthRate”, shows the difference in “Diff_HRperAB_vs_Strength”:

	Name	Years	AB	HR	Strength	Times_HRperAB_ over_SeasonMean	Times_Strength_over _SeasonMean	Times_HRRate_ vs_StrengthRate	Diff_HRperAB _vs_Strength
1	Barry Bonds	1986-2007	9847	762	258	61.2	21.4	63.3	2.1
2	Hank Aaron	1954-1976	12364	755	252	59.3	22.5	60.7	1.4
3	Babe Ruth	1914-1935	8398	714	289	157.2	25.9	133.2	-24
4	Alex Rodriguez	1994-2016	10566	696	305	43	24.4	38.8	-4.2
5	Willie Mays	1951-1973	10881	660	240	51.7	21.4	55.5	3.8
6	Albert Pujols	2001-2018	10196	633	315	36.6	20.3	32.5	-4.1
7	Ken Griffey	1989-2010	9801	630	270	46.7	23	46.4	-0.3
8	Jim Thome	1991-2012	8422	612	326	51.5	29.9	43.2	-8.3
9	Sammy Sosa	1989-2007	8813	609	237	39.4	16.9	44.4	5
10	Frank Robinson	1956-1976	10006	586	256	53.9	21.9	54.2	0.3
11	Mark McGwire	1986-2001	6187	583	292	57.4	18.9	51.7	-5.7
12	Harmon Killebrew	1954-1975	8147	573	267	54.5	22.8	52.6	-1.9
13	Rafael Palmeiro	1986-2005	10472	569	252	36.8	19.1	38.7	1.9
14	Reggie Jackson	1967-1987	9864	563	267	51.3	21.8	49.5	-1.8
15	Manny Ramirez	1993-2011	8244	555	297	41.2	22.9	37.7	-3.5
16	Mike Schmidt	1972-1989	8352	548	269	50.2	18.8	48.1	-2.1
17	David Ortiz	1997-2016	8640	541	305	37.4	22	34.2	-3.2
18	Mickey Mantle	1951-1968	8102	536	266	47.8	18.6	46.3	-1.5
19	Jimmie Foxx	1925-1945	8134	534	267	71.5	22.4	67.1	-4.4
20	Willie McCovey	1959-1980	8197	521	274	56.9	24.4	53.6	-3.3
21	Frank Thomas	1990-2008	8199	521	317	43.1	23.6	36.5	-6.6
22	Ted Williams	1939-1960	7706	521	280	67.4	20.8	61.6	-5.8
23	Ernie Banks	1953-1971	9421	512	253	40.7	18.6	41.4	0.7
24	Eddie Mathews	1952-1968	8537	512	263	43.4	18.4	42.5	-0.9
25	Mel Ott	1926-1947	9456	511	239	70.4	21	73.9	3.5
26	Gary Sheffield	1988-2009	9217	509	261	42.8	23.4	43.8	1
27	Eddie Murray	1977-1997	11336	504	264	39.4	23.4	38.6	-0.8
28	Lou Gehrig	1923-1939	8001	493	272	63.7	18.6	58.1	-5.6
29	Fred McGriff	1986-2004	8757	493	275	41	21.9	39.2	-1.8
30	Adrian Beltre	1998-2018	11068	477	291	29.1	22	27.9	-1.2
31	Stan Musial	1941-1963	10972	475	247	43.2	21.2	44.8	1.6
32	Willie Stargell	1962-1982	7927	475	262	50.5	21.4	49.7	-0.8
33	Carlos Delgado	1993-2009	7283	473	290	31.9	18.2	29.8	-2.1
34	Chipper Jones	1993-2012	8984	468	286	30	19.9	28.6	-1.4
35	Miguel Cabrera	2003-2018	8456	465	325	28	18.5	24.3	-3.7
36	Dave Winfield	1973-1995	11003	465	298	39.5	26.5	34.3	-5.2
37	Jose Canseco	1985-2001	7057	462	316	44.5	22.9	36.9	-7.6
38	Adam Dunn	2001-2014	6883	462	363	34.7	20.8	26.8	-7.9
39	Carl Yastrzemski	1961-1983	11988	452	246	38	22	39.8	1.8
40	Jeff Bagwell	1991-2005	7797	449	267	28.1	15	28	-0.1
41	Vladimir Guerrero	1996-2011	8155	449	310	27.4	18.1	24.1	-3.3
42	Dave Kingman	1971-1986	6677	442	288	58.6	21.3	52.4	-6.2

The largest differences were accounted by Babe Ruth (-24) who still almost double his closest tracker (Mel Ott, who displaced Jimmie Foxx of the second place thanks to his low 239 Strength) and Sammy Sosa (+5). So, the physical traits of Babe Ruth (74 in + 215 lbs = 289) impacted negatively in his “Times HR/AB over Season mean”, as the other players of his time were in physical disadvantage with him, looking like kids playing around with a Pro.

Corollary

Babe Ruth, despite this later skirmish using the Strength statistic, seems to be once again, immovable as the Greatest Player of All-Time.

Big names show up topping the list of the “Times HRRate_vs_StrengthRate”: 1-Babe Ruth; 2-Mel Ott; 3-Jimmie Foxx; 4-Barry Bonds; 5-Ted Williams; 6-Hank Aaron; 7-Lou Gehrig; 8-Willie Mays; 9-Frank Robinson; 10-Willie McCovey; 11-Harmon Killebrew. Make your own judgment.